Investment Manager Roger Schreiner

Welcome to Calculated Success

I have spent the last 40 years of my life studying the science of investing.  The financial markets are the focus of my life’s work. Since 1989 I have been writing a newsletter for individual investors with the goal of helping them become better investors.  Today we are doing more research and more writing than […]

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The Theory of (Everything) Investing

“Intelligence is the ability to adapt to change.”  –Stephen Hawking Recently I had the pleasure of watching the Academy Award-winning movie The Theory of Everything. Thanks to Stephen Hawking and other remarkable scientists we’re examining our place in the universe and acquiring a basis of understanding for how it all works. As I thought about the movie […]

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Investing for an Uncertain Future

“When did Noah build the Ark, Gladys? Before the rain, before the rain.” – Nathan Muir (Robert Redford), in Spy Game. Investing is a forward-looking endeavor, of course, but an inherent bias known in behavioral science as Recency Bias, compels us to focus on the recent past.  And so I find it helpful to remind myself […]

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Long/Short Volatility Update

Our Long/Short Volatility (LSV) managed account strategy employs a proprietary quantitative investment process that attempts to profit from short-term trends in stock market volatility. In December we incorporated an additional signal into our mix and modified our allocation process to accommodate the new signal. Our research tells us that when we get multiple signals to […]

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2015 Should be Better for Active Managers

Last year was the toughest year in three decades for active managers, according to Oliver Renick and Lu Wang reporting for Bloomberg.  About 73% of stock funds with at least $500 million in assets under management trailed their benchmarks – the most since 2004. There were a number of factors that made last year difficult […]

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2015 Investment Outlook – Everyone is Bullish

Everyone is bullish as we move into the New Year. Bloomberg tracks 18 Wall Street analysts and, according to their recent survey, all of them are forecasting gains for the US stock market in 2015 with the average estimate of +8.1%.  These forecasts are in line with polls done by research firm Birinyi Associates, which […]

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The Limits of Good Economic Policy

On Monday, Megan McArdle, a Bloomberg View columnist, offered an excellent summation of the extraordinary fiscal and monetary intervention going on around the globe. I agree with her wholeheartedly.  There are limits to what fiscal policy and monetary stimulus can do.  Even Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen would agree with that statement. The question is, […]

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New Client Portal & Mobile App

Today we launched a new web portal and mobile application for clients with improved functionality, several new features and a great look and feel. Access the new portal from our home page, Just click the yellow “Client Login” button and enter your User ID and Password as usual. From your mobile device, download the […]

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Inflation: Why it’s Bad, How to Invest

The Ludwig von Mises Institute is an amazing resource for learning and understanding economics. The myths perpetuated in the mainstream about inflation may be the most unfortunate of all economic untruths. Not only do the citizens of the world allow their governments to continuously inflate the money supply, they are convinced that a little inflation […]

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